Bismarck.

Late last Thursday, a loadstone of Leave left Downing street. It is unclear why – was Lee Cain pushed, and the balance of power levelled so that the communications dept. all agreed to brief that he jumped? It seems unlikely.
So he jumped – did he see his final victory on the horizon, and so committed ritual career-self-sacrifice to keep the victorious army in luck? Possibly.
Was he just being petulant at being passed over? The man was petty enough to dress up as a chicken, goading Cameron into TV debates. Possibly.
Probably a more involved calculus than we paupers are privvy too.

The outcome was simple, though. The tory party’s helmsman (once again) threatened to pack it in.
It was fairly simple though – once it looked like the ship was at the whims of one unelected man, the man had to be thrown overboard. And of course, the captain’s wife was being personally attacked by this one person- which seems like the real reason the plank was drawn.

‘There will never be socialism in Britain as long as they have horse-racing’

Otto von Bismarck

If we, as Cummings would like to suggest, compare this conservative ship to Otto von Bismarck then we must look at how they sought to control the British people.
A series of well-thought out tactical moves – trans rights, irrelevant spy-ops, speeches at the dispatch box about Critical-race-theory.
In trying to steer the ship into troubled waters to shake th nerve of its opponents, the helmsman tried to steer the ship there.

Ultimately, its legacy is under-the-water, and Labour’s desire to care for all sections of society (as any govt should) may still be its downfall. The libdems are hampered in that their core voter base are well-educated, and Labour is hampered by the coalition of competing labour-forces taking advantage of its empathetic voter base. It feels too much to keep its head.

We may still see flooding critically list the ship, and force it away from seeing off the enemy come 2024. But the only thing labour has to fear is itself, sections mutinying because they think they know how to steer best (especially the bolshy section who briefly showed their lack of strategy – if they saw an enemy, they would uncritically waste fuel and ammunition in making some symbolic attempt at taking them out).

The likes of Ian Lavery and Len McLuskey should think hard about why they are shooting at their own captain, and whether they should conserve the ammo for the real enemies. The captain just seems to gain more support from crews of all colours, but the ship is starting to suffer critical damage – the ship that must carry them to victory against the real enemy.

Back to the conservatives – you may be able to tell what tac this analogy is taking.

The horse-racing that we have now is a culture war – our horse against their more sensitive, job threatening, British-culture damning horse. To note is I’ve never seen a proponent of British culture engage in a ‘Morris dancing protest’. Shame. Seems like tinnies of Stella Artois and busts of men who sent troops against the working classes merely for asking for one day a week off work- are more British than British.

Priti Patel’s bid for the captain’s seat is heated rhetoric attacking our British institutions of law and order. Not very conservative, is it? Fortunately, the twice indighted daughter of darkness is too strong a player to see a place in a post-Cummings tory party. Too head-strong, too much bullying, too like the berk of Barnard.
More likely, after the Captain finally dies of intellectual constipation, a Major will be chosen. If the conservatives are intelligent, they will ask Rory Stewart to commit to the helm. If they’re not, then sad Sajid, martyr of the Cummings purges, will return to claim the hollow crown. If they middle and waiver then perhaps Hancock (or even boding hopeful Hunt- god help us). They are safe bets- maybe they could strike lucky and Labour will blow up its own magazines- with the current state of play, it’s probable.

Either way, Cummings has acheived the pyrhhic victory of becoming Bismarck in his political death – a king reborn, offered the usual gruel of attempted threrats to quite, was finally sick of his s**t. Expulsed by a chief finally offended by the esteem with which Bismarck held himself, he pushed him overboard by letting him quit as he so often threatened.
Maybe, as with Bismarck’s prescient prediction of the first world war, the Tory party is in dire straights in the next few years.

So where will our sick and bloated captain of the moment lead us?

Finishing off this confused mixing of metaphors, we look at the final downfall of Bismarck (the ship, not the person).
Rudderless and unable to correct its course, it drifted through the ocean until an ammassed British fleet bombarded it to the point the captain ordered it scuttled.
This PM, so bereft of his own ideas, seems to be steering into the same death-spiral toward a no-deal brexit.
If he does finally make a turn, giving up fisheries or the internal market bill in exchange for a Biden and EU half-way-house, then his own crew will mutiny and, barricaded alone in the bridge, he will be sunk by the rocks looming in 2024.
If he doesn’t – then he will not be sunk by anything other than himself. Listing, but not enough to capsize: the failing british economy, failed EU negotiations, failed coronavirus response, and probably a series of security threats from falling out of cooperating international security agencies and potentially literal land-grabs by foreign powers (Spain and Gibraltar? Argentina and the Falklands? any other overseas/home territory claiming independence?) will force him to sink or scuttle.

Either way – this ship is doomed, and if the tory party has any nouse, they will force the latter sooner than later. The losses on the Bismarck were horrendous and inhuman. Perhaps the Brexit party and/or a revitalised UKIP will play the part of the German submarines in a coming mass loss of political-life.